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Where Are The Pilots?
In today’s edition — India’s pilot shortage problem; US president Donald Trump isn’t really cutting costs; and the Navi Mumbai airport will be functional soon.
DECODE THE NEWS
India Faces Acute Pilot Shortage Amid Aviation Expansion

Last week, India’s civil aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu highlighted the growing demand for pilots, which is expected to rise sharply in the coming years.
“India will need 20,000 pilots in the coming years to accommodate growing air-travel demand,” Naidu said at the UDAAN Bhawan in Delhi during the launch of the Electronic Personnel License (EPL) for pilots.
The Indian aviation sector is experiencing a surge in fleet expansions. As of December 2024, Air India has ordered 570 aircraft since 2023, and IndiGo has ordered over 1,000 aircraft since 2011.
“Twenty-thousand is a little on the higher side, but we’ll need around 10,000 to 15,000 pilots. That’s mainly because we currently have around 1,100 to 1,200 aircraft on order, set for delivery over the next decade. If you factor in the orders from Air India, and IndiGo combined, along with the possibility of new airlines emerging in the next two to three years, the demand for pilots will only grow,” Ateish Mishra, an industry expert, told The Core.
How Is Demand Calculated
The demand estimate is based on aircraft utilisation. Mishra explains, “Typically, the way this estimate is derived is by looking at aircraft utilisation. For example, an IndiGo aircraft flies at least three to four sectors a day. Based on that, you need around five to six sets of pilots per aircraft. One set includes a captain and a co-pilot, and additional pilots are needed to account for delays, contingencies, and operational requirements.”
While this calculation applies primarily to commercial aviation, the demand extends to general aviation, including non-scheduled airlines, helicopters, and charter operators.
Mishra points out that the general aviation sector, currently with about 500 aircraft in India, is expected to grow by 15-20% annually, further fueling the need for pilots.
But what is the current situation? India’s aviation industry is gearing up for substantial growth, but it’s facing a significant obstacle: a looming pilot shortage that could hamper its ambitious expansion plans.
Pilot Shortage Is A Challenge
India has been grappling with a pilot shortage since 2015, driven by rapid fleet expansion and the rise of low-cost carriers like IndiGo and GoAir. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily slowed growth, but the industry’s recovery has exacerbated the shortage in recent years.
“There are two types of pilot shortages we’re facing. The first is a shortage of trained captains and examiners, particularly those certified for specific aircraft types. Upgrading them to newer models takes time, and creating a sufficient number of examiners is a long process. This has led to a persistent shortage of captains,” Mishra explained.
The country is projected to require over 1,000 new pilots annually for the next five years to meet rising demand. In addition to captains, there is now a noticeable shortage of co-pilots.
The number of unemployed pilots has also dropped significantly. Earlier, once the pilots received their commercial pilot license (CPL), they would start looking for jobs and end up being unemployed for months.
But now, the situation has changed—if a pilot completes their CPL with a basic rating, IndiGo immediately offers them a letter of intent, asking them to proceed with their type rating at any approved facility.
“Once they complete the training — spending around Rs 15-18 lakh — they can join the airline right away,” Mishra added.
However, the lack of sufficient training infrastructure in India is a critical issue. Aspiring pilots are increasingly forced to seek education abroad, a process that is both time-consuming and expensive.
Air India has announced plans to set up its pilot training academy in Amravati, Maharashtra. The academy is expected to train 180 pilots annually, allowing graduates to directly join Air India's fleet.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has reported issuing a record 1,622 commercial pilot licenses in 2023. However, this number still falls short of the projected demand, with an estimated deficit of about 2,375 pilots over the next five years. To bridge this gap, the government has encouraged the establishment of new Flight Training Organizations (FTOs) across India.
The Gulf Migration Phenomenon
As India faces this critical pilot shortage, another challenge has emerged: the migration of Indian pilots to Gulf carriers, particularly in the UAE.
“Gulf countries may seem attractive, but getting in isn’t easy. Yes, they offer good salaries and a glamorous lifestyle, but hiring is selective. Plus, when it comes to flight hours and days off, Indian regulations are stricter, allowing for less time off compared to Gulf carriers,” said a pilot who moved from an Indian airline to a Gulf carrier.
Indian pilots are increasingly seeking opportunities with Gulf carriers, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), due to attractive compensation packages and career prospects. Emirates, for instance, offers first officers a monthly salary ranging from approximately Rs 6.61 lakh to Rs 8.06 lakh (AED 26,000 to AED 34,000 or USD 7,075 to USD 9,578), along with benefits such as housing allowances, education support, and annual leave.
The attraction of Gulf carriers goes beyond financial incentives such as better and structured work hours. “Better working conditions are a major attraction,” Mishra pointed out. Migration is a growing concern for India’s aviation industry. The exodus of skilled pilots is contributing to the country’s pilot shortage, with implications for both operations and future growth.
“Most Gulf countries, including the UAE and Qatar, rely heavily on foreign skilled manpower to run their aviation businesses. The UAE, with Emirates as a major hub, and Qatar have a significant number of Indian pilots. Engineers are also moving there in large numbers. The two main reasons for this shift are career progression and better pay,” said Mishra..
PODCAST
On Episode 518 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst of SEB Research. We also feature an excerpt from our interview with Noshir Kaka, Senior Partner, Mumbai at McKinsey & Company from the recent Nasscom Technology Leadership Forum 2025 in Mumbai.
The markets are still struggling to find a bottom.
RBI reduces risk weightages for banks, possibly to drive retail demand revival.
BP to increase oil & gas investment to $10 billion per year in return to fossil fuel focus.
How natural gas demand for Europe is driving a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Tesla sales fall 45% in Europe as scepticism about an early India success rises.
The EU wants India to open up too, just says it more nicely.
Where is AI taking us and Indian enterprises?
CORE NUMBER
$710 billion
This is the total amount of U.S. government spending recorded between January 21 and February 20, 2025, according to Treasury Department data, reported by Reuters. This figure represents an increase from approximately $630 billion during the comparable period last year under President Biden. Despite president Trump's and his confidant Elon Musk's claims of cost-cutting—such as freezing billions in foreign aid and terminating over 20,000 federal employees—overall spending has risen. While Musk's Department of Government Efficiency reported $55 billion in savings from cancelled contracts and property leases, these reductions have been offset by increased expenditures on health and retirement programs, as well as rising interest payments, the report added.
FROM THE PERIPHERY
—🛫 After a series of delays and setbacks, could the Navi Mumbai airport become functional in a couple of months? Hindustan Times reported that while the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) completed an assessment of the airport on Tuesday, the airport is likely to become functional by May 15. DGCA officials have told the newspaper that the airport will apply for permits on March 5. All domestic flights to and from Mumbai will be moved to the new airport. But questions remain on how convenient this will actually be for passengers. Not only will the commute be rather long from the southern and central parts of Mumbai, connectivity to the airport also needs to be brought up to speed.
— ⚖️ Facebook and Instagram parent, Meta is being sued for allegedly favouring hiring foreigners over American workers as they can pay them lower salaries. Reuters reported that three plaintiffs have claimed in a lawsuit that they applied for jobs in the tech company between 2020 and 2024, but did not get hired as Meta had "systematic preference" for visa holders. The report said that US magistrate judge Laurel Beeler in San Francisco has allowed the proposed class action suit to proceed. Meanwhile, Meta has denied the allegations.
—💲 The US is set to replace the EB-5 investor visa with a pricier 'gold card' program. Announced by President Trump, the new visa will offer residency and a path to citizenship for those willing to pay $5 million, The Business Standard reported. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed the EB-5 program’s end, citing concerns over fraud. Unlike EB-5, which requires job creation and business investments, the new visa may involve directly paying the government. Details remain unclear, but if you have got $5 million, America might just roll out the red carpet.
—🧑💼 According to the 2025 Edelman Trust Barometer APAC Report, CEO trust remains a vital indicator of institutional confidence. In India, 83% of employees trust their own CEO and 74% trust CEOs in general—figures higher than APAC averages, a survey conducted by Edelman revealed. Furthermore, 81% of Indians believe CEOs are justified to act on social issues if they can make a major impact, compared to 79% across APAC, while 70% support action that boosts business performance versus a 72% regional average. The report also showed that trust in CEOs is particularly low in Japan and Australia—where scores dip below 50%..
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